India has achieved a significant milestone in its climate journey: for the first time outside of the COVID-19 pandemic years, the country has recorded a decline in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions during the first half of 2025. This marks a pivotal shift in India’s energy trajectory, signaling the potential for sustained emission reductions in the coming years.
A Historic Decline in Power Sector Emissions
According to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s power sector emissions fell by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This is only the second recorded decline in nearly 50 years, excluding the pandemic-related drop in 2020. The reduction is attributed to several key factors:
- Expansion of Renewable Energy: India added a record 25.1 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil fuel-based electricity capacity from January to June 2025, a 69% increase over the previous record. This surge in clean energy generation helped offset the need for fossil fuel-based power.
- Increased Hydropower Output: A rise in rainfall during the pre-monsoon period led to higher hydropower generation, contributing to the overall reduction in CO₂ emissions.
- Milder Weather Conditions: Lower temperatures and reduced air conditioning demand during the summer months decreased electricity consumption, further alleviating pressure on fossil fuel-based power generation.
These combined factors resulted in a 29 terawatt-hour (TWh) decrease in fossil fuel-based power generation, despite an overall 9 TWh increase in total electricity production.
Sectoral Emission Trends
While the power sector saw a decline in emissions, other sectors exhibited varied trends:
- Oil Demand Growth: The growth in oil demand slowed significantly, contributing to a 20% reduction in emissions growth.
- Industrial Emissions: Emissions from steel and cement production continued to rise due to ongoing infrastructure investments.
- Coal and Gas Use: Outside the power, steel, and cement sectors, coal and gas use declined by 2%, accounting for another 20% of the overall emission slowdown.
These developments indicate a complex interplay of factors influencing India’s overall emission trajectory.
Implications for India’s Climate Goals
The first half of 2025’s emission data suggests that India’s power sector emissions could peak before 2030, provided that clean energy capacity continues to grow and electricity demand remains stable. This aligns with India’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 and underscores the importance of accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources.
However, experts caution that sustained emission reductions will require continued investment in clean energy infrastructure, energy efficiency measures, and supportive policies. The recent decline is a positive step, but it must be part of a broader, long-term strategy to address climate change.
Conclusion
India’s achievement in reducing CO₂ emissions in the first half of 2025 represents a significant milestone in its climate journey. While challenges remain, this development demonstrates the potential for substantial emission reductions through concerted efforts in clean energy expansion and demand-side management. As the country continues to invest in sustainable energy solutions, it moves closer to realizing its climate goals and contributing to global efforts to combat climate change.